Drafting NFL quarterbacks is a total crapshoot

As a longtime 49ers fan, I'm well aware of how the NFL Draft can make or break your franchise. Back in 1979 the team drafted Joe Montana in the third round of the NFL Draft, and he went on to become arguably the greatest QB ever. We also drafted Alex Smith with the #1 pick in the 2005 Draft. Needless to say that hasn't worked out so well. But it brings up an interesting question. Does anyone in the NFL have any clue what they're doing when they're drafting QBs? The answer is not really.

Just from a more recent perspective this seems to be true. Philip Rivers has clearly regressed as a starting QB, defenses are catching up to Vince Young who was never a good QB anyway, Matt Leinart is basically immobile, and Alex Smith is a nightmare. And just think, those four guys signed contracts that in total hover around $200 million.

Meanwhile, we have players such as Derek Anderson, a sixth round draft choice, playing out of his mind. And Tony Romo, the QB with the third best passer rating so far this year, wasn't even drafted. I'd take both those guys over Smith any day of the week.

But rather than continue to just speculate, let's look at real data. Here are the primary QBs for this year's NFL teams with winning records and where they were drafted.

Giants - Eli Manning (First Round)
Redskins - Jason Campbell (First Round)
Bills - JP Losman (First Round)
Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger (First Round)
Colts - Peyton Manning (First Round)
Titans - Vince Young (First Round)
San Diego - Philip Rivers (First Round)
Packers - Brett Favre (Second Round)
Jacksonville - David Garrard (Fourth Round)/Quinn Gray (undrafted)
Seahawks - Matt Hasselbeck (Sixth Round)
Patriots - Tom Brady (Sixth Round)
Browns - Derek Anderson (Sixth Round)
Cowboys - Tony Romo (undrafted)
Lions - Jon Kitna (undrafted)
Bucs - Jeff Garcia (undrafted)

So if you add in Quinn Gray, then we have as many Sixth Round and Undrafted QBs leading winning teams as we do First Round QBs.

But wins alone aren't the best example of whether a QB is competent or not - I'm looking at you Vince Young. A passer rating gets us closer to that. So let's find the average passer rating by draft round for the primary QBs in this year's NFL. We're using career passer ratings (not just this year's) provided by NFL.com and have added Byron Leftwich, Jake Delhomme, David Carr and Vinny Testaverde to the list. Special note: Trent Green was drafted in the 8th round of the 1993 Draft. This means in total we're looking at 34 QBs.

First Round QBs: 17
Avg. passer rating: 80.05

Second Round QBs: 2
Avg. passer rating: 86.35

Third Round QBs: 2
Avg. passer rating: 81.05

Fourth Round QBs: 1
Avg. passer rating: 84.1

Fifth Round QBs: none

Sixth Round QBs: 4
Avg. passer rating: 87.48

Seventh Round QBs: none

Eighth Round QBs: 1
Avg. passer rating: 86.9

Undrafted QBs: 7
Avg. passer rating: 85.07

You don't need a linear regression analysis program to tell you that there is no correlation between career passer rating and draft round. But there are some important things to consider. One is that first round draft choices get more playing time to determine if they'll pan out while late round draft choices have to produce immediately. We all know about the Ryan Leafs and Akili Smiths. Meanwhile a bad Sixth Round pick may play one game and that's basically his career. Or he may never play at all. These scenarios will naturally deflate the first round QB avg. passer rating to a degree while boosting the late rounds. But, looking at it from another perspective, you can also make the argument with the data available that there are a fair number of pretty good QBs that go late in the draft or that don't get drafted at all. By this analysis, there are 12 current QBs who were drafted in the Sixth Round or later (or not at all) who easily surpass the 17 First Round players in average career passer rating. When you stop and think about that, it's stunning. And it also says that maybe some of those First Round picks really shouldn't be playing anymore and teams should be trying out new guys - like say my 49ers. One can only wonder how many Tom Bradys and Tony Romos weren't discovered because a higher draft pick, but inferior player, was ahead of them on the depth chart.

The most recent example is Derek Anderson. Romeo Crennel named Charlie Frye (a third round choice) as his starter at the beginning of the year, then traded him after Week 1. It's only because of that trade that Anderson saw significant playing time. Imagine if Crennel had stuck with Frye until week 8 or 9. He might have just inserted Brady Quinn by then, effectively shutting the door on Anderson's career. Instead, the trade was made, Anderson began starting, and another late round gem was found.

Year after year scouts and coaches drool over players with great arm strength (see: Boller, Kyle), or family genes (see: Manning, Eli) or God only knows what (see: Smith, Alex). And after they fail - although Eli appears to maybe finally be headed in the right direction - you hear excuse after excuse. He's an idiot; he didn't play in a pro-style college offense; he's slow; he doesn't get rid of the ball quickly enough. Well, if all that's so noticeable now, why didn't you notice it before? And why didn't you notice Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Derek Anderson, and Kurt Warner? Obviously something isn't working in terms of scouting.

Certainly more analysis needs to be done - as in looking back year after year - but there does seem to be a bit of a trend. And that is that there are a ton of first round QB busts along with a surprisingly high number of good QBs available late in the draft or who were never drafted at all. Which pretty much means one thing. The draft is frequently a total crapshoot when it comes to drafting QBs.

-WCK

The Future Of The Eagles?

I've been out of pocket for the past few days covering the Penn Relays, so this comes a few days late...

You gotta hand it to the Eagles. At least they have some cahones.

It may be pure stupidity on their part to draft quarterback Kevin Kolb with their first pick of the draft (in the second round), but it was definately gutsy.

Why not just slap Donovan McNabb in the face and say, "We think you're injury prone and will be out of the league in the next three years. We have to start preparing for the future now."

I have absolutely no problem with the Eagles drafting a quarterback. I thought it was something they needed to do at some point. Just not with the first pick in the second round, especially on a guy who would probably still be available in the third or fourth rounds.

Kolb was a solid QB for Houston last year, breaking almost every passing and offensive record the Cougars had. He completed 61.5 percent of his passes, throwing for 12,964 yards and 106 touchdowns (including rushing TDs). And he was a four-year starter for the Cougars, which says a lot.

Eagles coach Andy Reid said after the Patriots (my new archnemisis) took Miami safety Brandon Meriweather in the first round, they decided to trade down and go with the highest player on their board. Are you telling me that out of all the players available in the draft, Kevin Kolb was No. 3 on your board behind Meriweather and Texas safety Michael Griffin?

Out of all the needs the Eagles have (short yardage running back, linebacker, safety), a QB was the next best thing available? Why not draft a Brian Leonard (RB, Rutgers) or Michael Bush (RB, Louisville) or something other than a quarterback.

The Eagles should have been drafting for next year, not five years down the road.

I guess all this really means is bye-bye Kelly Holcomb.

Draft Notes
How 'Bout Them ... Cleveland Browns?
The Dog Pound may have had the best first round in years, managing to land not only the top offensive tackle in the draft (Wicsonsin's Joe Thomas), but one of the top quarterbacks, too (Notre Dame's Brady Quinn).

And how about the front office calling Quinn on Friday and telling him that they were not going to take him with the third pick. That's a class act.

Quinn did have the moment of the draft when the camera was on him as the Dolphins selected Ohio State's Ted Ginn, Jr (and how about Dolphins head coach Cam Cameron announcing his pick to the fans. I was waiting for them to start tossing dead fish at him). As Brady mouthed "that was surprising," everyone knew he was going to be in for the long haul.

But it all worked out for golden boy. He ended up going to the Browns, his hometown team, anyway. And he did handle all the media pressure very well for a kid just coming out of college.

Now, the only thing he has to learn is to not chew gum while going on to the stage to get his jersey and hat. Didn't they teach that to him in elementary school?

Are Wide Receivers Worthless now?
Randy Moss goes from Oakland to New England for a fourth-round pick. Darrell Jackson moves from Seattle to San Francisco for a fourth-round pick.

Why not just trade them for cases of beer? At least you can have an immediate impact there.

Just Cancel the NFL Season and Give the Pats the Superbowl
Not only do the Patriots have one of the top three quartebacks in the league, Tom Brady. Not only do they have one of the most gifted coaches in the the league, Bill Belichick. Not only do they have one of the most up-and-coming RBs in the league, Laurence Maroney. But now they have one of the most formidable linebacking corps in the league, Adelius Thomas, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrable and Roosevelt Colvin. And one of the most dangerous wide receiving corps in the league, Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney.

All I can say is that I'm glad New England's in the AFC.

-PB

Is having the #1 pick in the NFL Draft actually worth it?

There's a great article by Daniel Brown from Sunday's San Jose Mercury News that looks at whether or not having the first pick in the NFL Draft actually makes economic sense for teams. This year, here in the Bay Area, the Raiders have the 1st pick and the 49ers have the 11th pick. The 1st pick in this year's draft is expected to get an estimated $30 million guaranteed while the 11th pick would get in the $10-12 million range. This thus begs the question: Is the #1 pick really worth three times as much as the #11 pick?

Two economists say no. Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago and Cade Massey, formerly of Duke, but now at Yale, insist the top pick is usually a burden for teams. An expensive mistake (see Detroit Lions) can cripple a franchise for years. Massey said that the "sweet-spot" of the draft comes late in the first round and early second round.

There's certainly plenty of data to back it up. Peyton Manning is the only #1 pick after 1997 to play in a Super Bowl.

Teams have also done historically well by trading down. The best recent example is the San Diego Chargers who traded away Eli Manning to the Giants and picked up Philip Rivers and Nate Kaeding in that draft, as well as a 2005 first-round pick that they used on Shawne Merriman.

If you want to read the actual study by Thaler and Massey, here is a link for it.

Also, let's take a look at how recent #1 picks stack up against #11 picks.

Year ---- #1 pick
2006 ---- Mario Williams
2005 ---- Alex Smith
2004 ---- Eli Manning
2003 ---- Carson Palmer
2002 ---- David Carr
2001 ---- Michael Vick
2000 ---- Courtney Brown
1999 ---- Tim Couch
1998 ---- Peyton Manning
1997 ---- Orlando Pace

Year ---- #11 pick
2006 ---- Jay Cutler
2005 ---- DeMarcus Ware
2004 ---- Ben Roethlisberger
2003 ---- Marcus Trufant
2002 ---- Dwight Freeney
2001 ---- Dan Morgan
2000 ---- Ron Dayne
1999 ---- Duante Culpepper
1998 ---- Tra Thomas
1997 ---- Michael Booker

Let the debate begin.