Let's make this clear right away, this will be the best 7-game series of all time pitting a #1 seed against a #8 seed. The Warriors have what it takes to win this thing and here's why.1. Confidence - The Warriors have won 6 of their last 7 against Dallas (although one of those wins admittedly shouldn't count because Dallas was resting it's starters). This is no fluke. The Warriors are a confident team and not only do they believe they can beat Dallas, they have kicked their butts of late.
2. Teacher versus pupil - Nellie taught Dallas coach Avery Johnson everything he knows about coaching. While you can counter that Johnson knows an awful lot about how Nellie coaches, Nellie is 3-0 against Avery. Nelson also has a history of abusing teams and players he used to coach (see Warriors final regular season game against Phoenix and Steve Nash). This has a familiar feel to the Raiders/Bucs Super Bowl when Jon Gruden basically knew where Rich Gannon would be throwing on every single play.
3. Guard play - The Warriors are one of the few teams in the league that can hang with the 4-headed monster of Dallas that includes Jason Terry, Josh Howard, Devin Harris and Jerry Stackhouse. Baron Davis is too big and physical for either Harris or Terry to effectively guard, Monta Ellis is just as fast as Harris, and both Stephen Jackson and J-Rich are larger than normal guards, meaning Howard and/or Stackhouse will be forced to guard them leaving Davis to operate the offense without much distraction. Should Dallas decide to put Howard on Davis (which seems bound to happen at some time) J-Rich and Jackson will feast on the smaller Terry and Harris, and the less than quick Stackhouse.
4. Center play - While Diop and Dampier are together quite a powerful duo, Dampier is coming off a shoulder injury. Meanwhile Andris Biedrins has emerged this year for the Warriors as a force in the paint, averaging nearly 10 points and 10 boards a game while shooting 60% from the field. While Biedrins is foul prone, the Warriors have Adonal Foyle on the bench. Biedrins, if he plays well, combined with Foyle, can effectively eliminate the typically huge Dallas advantage of size and rebounding in the paint.
5. Adaptability - The team that's the closest match to the Suns (which has also given the Mavs trouble over the years) is the Warriors. The difference is the Warriors actually play defense and can play a power game. The Warriors are more than capable of neutralizing Dallas's center-duo by running and gunning. Conversely, if the Mavs want to slow it down, the Warriors have the necessary centers to play power basketball (which the Suns don't have since Stoudemire is their only true mobile center). No other team in basketball has quite the same roster as the Warriors to effectively challenge and beat the Mavs at their own game.
6. Health and team play - Everyone on the Warriors is finally healthy and the team has gelled since the trade with Indiana earlier this year. This team is better than it's #8 seed suggests.
7. Nowitzki will suck for at least a few games - Why? Because I say so.
Prediction: Warriors in 7.
-WCK
