Thursday, April 19, 2007

Why The City will beat the Mavericks

Let's make this clear right away, this will be the best 7-game series of all time pitting a #1 seed against a #8 seed. The Warriors have what it takes to win this thing and here's why.

1. Confidence - The Warriors have won 6 of their last 7 against Dallas (although one of those wins admittedly shouldn't count because Dallas was resting it's starters). This is no fluke. The Warriors are a confident team and not only do they believe they can beat Dallas, they have kicked their butts of late.

2. Teacher versus pupil - Nellie taught Dallas coach Avery Johnson everything he knows about coaching. While you can counter that Johnson knows an awful lot about how Nellie coaches, Nellie is 3-0 against Avery. Nelson also has a history of abusing teams and players he used to coach (see Warriors final regular season game against Phoenix and Steve Nash). This has a familiar feel to the Raiders/Bucs Super Bowl when Jon Gruden basically knew where Rich Gannon would be throwing on every single play.

3. Guard play - The Warriors are one of the few teams in the league that can hang with the 4-headed monster of Dallas that includes Jason Terry, Josh Howard, Devin Harris and Jerry Stackhouse. Baron Davis is too big and physical for either Harris or Terry to effectively guard, Monta Ellis is just as fast as Harris, and both Stephen Jackson and J-Rich are larger than normal guards, meaning Howard and/or Stackhouse will be forced to guard them leaving Davis to operate the offense without much distraction. Should Dallas decide to put Howard on Davis (which seems bound to happen at some time) J-Rich and Jackson will feast on the smaller Terry and Harris, and the less than quick Stackhouse.

4. Center play - While Diop and Dampier are together quite a powerful duo, Dampier is coming off a shoulder injury. Meanwhile Andris Biedrins has emerged this year for the Warriors as a force in the paint, averaging nearly 10 points and 10 boards a game while shooting 60% from the field. While Biedrins is foul prone, the Warriors have Adonal Foyle on the bench. Biedrins, if he plays well, combined with Foyle, can effectively eliminate the typically huge Dallas advantage of size and rebounding in the paint.

5. Adaptability - The team that's the closest match to the Suns (which has also given the Mavs trouble over the years) is the Warriors. The difference is the Warriors actually play defense and can play a power game. The Warriors are more than capable of neutralizing Dallas's center-duo by running and gunning. Conversely, if the Mavs want to slow it down, the Warriors have the necessary centers to play power basketball (which the Suns don't have since Stoudemire is their only true mobile center). No other team in basketball has quite the same roster as the Warriors to effectively challenge and beat the Mavs at their own game.

6. Health and team play - Everyone on the Warriors is finally healthy and the team has gelled since the trade with Indiana earlier this year. This team is better than it's #8 seed suggests.

7. Nowitzki will suck for at least a few games - Why? Because I say so.

Prediction: Warriors in 7.

-WCK

41 comments:

Anonymous said...

are you high? where do you see the warriors play defense? they ARE LAST IN PPG ALLOWED.

Kye said...

but first in STEALS, fwiw

Trey said...

Here are 2 problems I have with this:

1. Adonal Foyle is used as a positive reason the Warriors can win.

2. Numerous comments implying the Warriors are better than the Suns. They aren't.

Anonymous said...

huge dubs fan here but even i don't know about some of your reasoning. your center comments are pretty off. andris can not post up and foyle is only an option to trot out in front of home crowds to smile and wave for a minute of garbage time. i love the confidence but...whoa.

Anonymous said...

#8. Nelson knows to foul Dirk in the final seconds, because he will choke like he did in the Finals last year, and then decide to kick some stationary bikes like a hard ass.

Anonymous said...

You conveniently forget to mention (or don't realize) that Avery Johnson actually learned his coaching style from Popovich, not Nelson. Also consider:
* Depth - Mavs have it 10 deep, W's don't.
* Defensive players - Devean George and Greg Buckner are plenty big and tough enough to handle the W's backcourt if needed.
* Style - The half-court game rules in the playoffs (See Mavs beating Suns last year). Nellie's teams have NEVER proved to be effective in the playoffs against quality competition (save the year the Mavs went to the Conference Finals with him at the helm).
* We're talking about the Warriors here. Karma dictates they lose no matter what......

randjamal said...

Defense? You must have been watching a different warriors team than I was this season. They are behind every other playoff team in terms of opposing team fg% allowed.

Anonymous said...

LMAO, you're too delusional

That's right, a team that hasnt made the plaoffs in 12 years is going to beat the best team in the NBA who has had the 6th best regular season of all time??

Pass it right dude.

kylewright4heisman said...

The Knicks were able to be beat a #1 seed when they were a 8 seed back in '99. I think the Warriors might be able to mirror that feat.

erocking said...

Good lord...it's JON Gruden and Rich GANNON. Other than that, go W's!

Anonymous said...

Beating a team the last 5 of 6 times speaks for itself. Of course the last game didn't count.

Anonymous said...

Dirk is going to suck through this whole series.. not because he isn't a great player.. but because the Mavs suporting cast isn't good enough to demand the opposing defense play them straight up. They can double Dirk at will and not pay for it.

Anonymous said...

While the first point sounds reasonable to some extent, the rest of them can be ripped apart easily. Even the confidence aspect lacks perspective especially when you consider that an excuse for only 42 wins is that the team hadn’t gelled together until recently. But then, this gelled Warriors team has played only two against the Mavericks since, and one of those wins was basically a give away.
As for coaching, Avery’s style has nothing in common with Nellie’s. His style comes directly from his growth as a player under Greg Popovich. It also happens to be the reason why Mavericks match so well with the Spurs.
As far as Warriors defense is concerned, only 5 of their 42 wins have come without them more than 100 points (Mavericks have 29 wins). And in 60 of 82 games, the opposition has managed to score 100+ points (Mavericks’ opposition scored better than 100 points only 22 times, the exact number of times Warriors opponents failed to reach 100).
But, yes, steals and forcing turnovers is a major part of their defense and they are really good at it.

Anonymous said...

I believe everyone is forgetting one thing... let's just call it the Stephen Jackson Factor. Would you really want to beat Stephen Jackson in the first round of the playoffs? I know I wouldn't... What did that poor fan in Detroit do to the guy? Nothing. Who knows what really happened outside that strip club. Point is, Jackson is from Texas, he probably knows where the Mavs party, and would you want to be a Mav and see him out this summer after knocking him out of the playoffs? Hell no... Winning ain't that important and trust me, the Mavs know this.
Warriors in 7.

Anonymous said...

Just the idea that a team who had to win the last game of the season just to get into the playoffs can even compete with the team with one of the best records in NBA history is a bit ridiculous. My guess is that any of the the top 7 seeds (yes even the Kobes) could beat Golden State University in 6 games.

Anonymous said...

"Dirk is going to suck through this whole series.. not because he isn't a great player.. but because the Mavs suporting cast isn't good enough to demand the opposing defense play them straight up. They can double Dirk at will and not pay for it."

Have you ever watched the Mavs outside of GS games?

kim said...

I can tell you are one of those guys that I've seen chilling out in the Bay Area, playing with the sea lions... and probably they have infected your mind. Well, best wishes to your Warriors. Dream on. Savor the remaining games of the Warriors this season.

Anonymous said...

Wow. You have got to be the most ignorant basketball fan in the history of the game. Golden State doesn't play defense, they've never been in the playoffs, and we ALL know that how you play leading up to the playoffs doesn't mean squat once you're in. You don't think the Mavericks aren't focusing on the Warriors? They've been focused on the playoffs all year long and that's not going to change now. Also, Johnson takes after Pop and NOT Nellie; Buckner and George are very big, high-quality defenders that can lock down Davis and Richardson; the Mavs WILL slow down the game to a half-court pace, which never proves to be effective (see Mavericks 3 years ago, Suns the past two years). Nellie's teams never succeed in the playoffs, and there's no reason to expect they will now. Historically good team against a team that had to win out at the end of the regular season to just make the playoffs? Mavs in 6 at worst.

Anonymous said...

and you're fat

Anonymous said...

Let's see, other Mr. Anonymous, if it's the Mavs in 6 at worst, your arithmetic is now a bit off.

And you're ugly.

Andy W said...

well done sir

Anonymous said...

haha look at all your doubters and haters now, you call yourself fans? Get out of here, the Warriors sledgehammered the Mavs and your boy Dirk. This guy presented a legit argument, and many of his points were proven true, but you still ripped him apart, and you don't even have the guts to come back here and give this man props? wow..

Ash Haque said...

Man some of these comments are hilarious :-)
Very nice pick

Anonymous said...

This was prophetic. Are you a descendent of Nostradamus? Can you recommend lottery numbers or stock picks?

Anonymous said...

wow, the thing that shocks me is that you predicted nowitzki having an under par series

Anonymous said...

Seeing the comments go from "are you high?" to "are you a prophet?" is sorta weird.

Anonymous said...

Very good job of predicting
Warriors to win and they did. Actually,I predicted Warriors in 6 too but have no guts like you to publicly posted it out. Plus, I am not a GSW Warriors fan. However, there must be a reason that GSW owned Dallas at regular season and they proved it!Well done!

Anonymous said...

haters got pwned

FAGS

Jake said...

I am a Wizards/Warriors fan from D.C. and I got to be honest; Everyone underestimated my teams this year.

Who would have thought that Gilbert Arenas would be starting point guard? No one, except the Wizards fans. That is exactly what is wrong with the NBA. Unless you're team is 1)kicking everyone's butt around the NBA, or 2) got a supposedly legit NBA All-star on their team (and just for the record, Gilbert was only an all-star in D.C., not America, folks) then they suck.
In many people's eyes, Baron nor J-Rich is an All-star and yet these guy can kill you.

In short, to all the haters

based on the qualifications of a good NBA team above, yes the Warriors do suck. So that leaves me with the question. Why did they just buttrape the most powerful team in the league?

In short,
average NBA fan (dallas, phoenix, detroit, miami) = stupid, ignorant people

Jake said...

btw good call man
i applaud you for it.
I bet my friend (phoenix fans) two dubs that the warriors would win.
And guess what? I'm 40 bucks richer.

And another thank you to THE CITY for bitch-slapping the NBA community back to reality and realizing all these powerhouse teams aren't what there cracked up to be

Jake said...

btw the gilbert thing is 4 eastern conference all-star
plus cover of Live 08

Jolson said...

Hey for the record I'm an average NBA fan (I like Miami, so I'm a little sad) and I completely agreed that Golden State could beat Dallas.

And they did.

In an awesome series.

Booya!

Dallas is now in the history books as one of the most disappointing squads in the postseason ever. If not THE most.

Xanthippas said...

Man, you didn't just call it, you called it for the right reasons. Well done, and congrats.

Anonymous said...

Just wanted to say good call. I watched the entire series on TV, and man it felt good seeing the Warriors win. I've been a fan since the Run TMC days with Nellie the first time so all I can say is Go Warriors! I also see Warriors beating the Jazz in 6.

just call me charles said...

I couldn't help but laugh to everyone who predicted otherwise. I'm no preacher but, obviously faith can overcome any statistical analysis. Mad props to your convincing prognosis, as well as true love for your team.

P.S. Lakers in 2008.

bruno said...

flabbergasted
congrats, you had it all right and the guts to post it.
now can u tell us if Nowitzki will actually received the MVP award?Therefore ashaming the NBA and all fans all around the world?man, that would be a hell of a season

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